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fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game ★ 348 442 DATA_RESEARCH

This repository implements FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo forecasting model and evaluation framework. The data lineage flows from two raw CSV sources: `data/nfl_games.csv` containing historical game results (1920-present) with pre-computed Elo win probabilities, and `data/initial_elos.csv` providing starting Elo ratings for each franchise. The `forecast.py` module implements the core Elo engine: it initializes team ratings, applies season-to-season reversion (retaining 2/3 of prior rating, reverting 1/3 toward 1505), incorporates home-field advantage (65 Elo points), and updates ratings post-game using a margin-of-victory multiplier (log(pd+1) * 2.2/(elo_diff*0.001+2.2)). Special hardcoded reversions handle franchise relocations/expansions. The `util.py` module handles CSV parsing with type coercion and evaluates forecasts using a Brier-score-based points system (25 - 100*brier, doubled for playoffs). The `eval.py` script orchestrates the full pipeline: load games, generate forecasts, evaluate against FiveThirtyEight's baseline. The repo answers the research question: 'Can alternative forecasting models beat FiveThirtyEight's Elo model on historical NFL data?'

RATING: 7.5/10 REPRO: 8.0/10 MAINT: deprecated DRIFT: low
▸ 3 reusable components found
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